© 1995 The Gerontological Society of America
The Risk of Mortality Among Older Adults Over an Eight-Year Period1
2 Department of Medicine, Indiana University School of Medicine, and Regenstrief Institute for Health Care Address correspondence to Dr. Fredric Wolinsky at Regenstrief Health Center, 1001 West Tenth Street, Fifth Floor, Indianapolis, IN 46202-2859
3 Department of Sociology, Kent State University Kent, Ohio
4 Regenstrief Institute for Health Care
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Abstract |
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Mortality risks over an 8-year period are assessed among the 7,527 older adults interviewed as part of the Longitudinal Study on Aging. Using a modified version of the behavioral model, hierarchical methods are used to sequentially introduce the predisposing and enabling characteristics, disease history, disabilities and functional limitations, perceived health, and health services utilization both at and after baseline. Based on their partial r statistics (shown in parentheses), the proportional hazard analyses identify the mean annual number of hospital episodes after baseline (.13), age (.07), female gender (–.05), non-kin social supports (–.03), body mass (–.03), and having a history of diabetes (.03) as the six most salient predictors. These six variables account for 80% of the overall model fit.
Keywords: Dying, Hierarchical modeling, Longitudinal Study on Aging
1 This study was supported by grant R37-AG09692 to Dr. Wolinsky from the National Institutes of Health. The authors thank Paul D. Allison and Jay D. Teachman for their comments and suggestions at formative stages of the study design process, and absolve them from any responsibility for the analysis as presented. The opinions expressed here are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect those of the funding agency, academic, or governmental institutions involved.
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